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Global Manufacturing Production Value to Hit $44.5 Trillion in 2022
2022年全球制造業(yè)產(chǎn)值將達(dá)44.5萬億美元

New research from Interact Analysis projects that total manufacturing industry output will grow by 4% in 2022, then decline by $0.2 trillion in 2023, before rising again in 2024 and 2025.

來自Interact Analysis的新研究預(yù)測，2022年制造業(yè)總產(chǎn)值將增長4%，然后在2023年下降0.2萬億美元，但2024年和2025年再次上升。

The new research profiles Russia and Ukraine to ascertain stress points for MIO regions. Despite a GDP of over $1.7 trillion, Russia is considered an ‘emerging economy’ due to its small manufacturing base. However, since the largest companies in Russia are energy suppliers, the country is considered an ‘energy superpower’. Escalating fuel prices, which will impact Europe far more severely than the USA, are an obvious fallout from the conflict. Ukraine on the other hand had a GDP of just over $155 billion in 2020 according to the IMF, of which just over 30% was industrial production. Ukraine produces 70% of the world’s Neon–a key input in semiconductor production–and half of Ukrainian Neon is from Odessa and Mariupol. Since both these cities are key Russian targets, we expect one fallout of the conflict to be severe increases in the price of Neon. This will be a further big problem for the already beleaguered chip industry, which will turn to cheaper suppliers in China for relief.

這項新的研究對俄羅斯和烏克蘭進(jìn)行了剖析，以確定制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出地區(qū)的壓力點。盡管國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值超過1.7萬億美元，但由于其制造業(yè)基礎(chǔ)較小，俄羅斯被視為“新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體”。不過由于俄羅斯最大的公司是能源供應(yīng)商，該國被視為“能源超級大國”。不斷攀升的燃料價格是這場沖突的明顯后果，它對歐洲的影響遠(yuǎn)比美國嚴(yán)重。另一方面，根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)據(jù)，烏克蘭2020年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值剛剛超過1550億美元，其中30%以上是工業(yè)生產(chǎn)。烏克蘭生產(chǎn)世界70%的氖氣——半導(dǎo)體生產(chǎn)的關(guān)鍵原料——烏克蘭一半的氖氣來自敖德薩和馬里烏波爾。由于這兩個城市都是俄羅斯的主要目標(biāo)，我們預(yù)計沖突的一個后果是氖氣價格的大幅上漲。對于已經(jīng)陷入困境的芯片行業(yè)來說，這將是一個更大的問題，該行業(yè)將轉(zhuǎn)向中國更廉價的供應(yīng)商尋求幫助。
 
The Shanghai lockdowns have also had an undoubtable impact on the manufacturing industry, particularly because the city hosts a port that handles over 25% of all Chinese freight traffic. Shanghai is primarily a finance center, however if the Chinese government were to implement similar measures in one of their major manufacturing hubs, it could spell disaster for the global economy, since China accounts for 44.4% of total global production output.
 
上海的封鎖也對制造業(yè)產(chǎn)生了毋庸置疑的影響，特別是因為該市擁有一個處理超過25%中國貨運量的港口。上海主要是一個金融中心，但如果中國政府在其主要制造業(yè)中心之一實施類似措施，可能會給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來災(zāi)難，因為中國占全球總產(chǎn)量的44.4%。
 
Adrian Lloyd, CEO at Interact Analysis said, “Automotive is particularly worthy of comment at the moment. The sector was already facing severe pressures following the pandemic, and the Ukraine conflict has made matters far worse for the industry. One of these problems is the new pressures on semiconductors, which already hit the automotive sector hard. Another is that Russia provides the majority of the world’s palladium which is used to produce catalytic converters and is now inaccessible. And yet another problem is that Ukraine is a key manufacturer of components for Western Europe’s automotive industry, particularly wire harnesses, supplies of which are now intermittent. As a result of all this, we predict minimal growth for automotive of 2.8% in 2022.”

Interact Analysis首席執(zhí)行官Adrian Lloyd表示：“汽車行業(yè)目前尤其值得一說。疫情之后，該行業(yè)已經(jīng)面臨嚴(yán)重壓力，而烏克蘭沖突讓情況變得更加糟糕。其中一個問題是半導(dǎo)體面臨的新壓力，這已經(jīng)對汽車行業(yè)造成了沉重打擊。另一個原因是，俄羅斯提供了全球大部分用于生產(chǎn)催化轉(zhuǎn)化器的鈀，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)無法獲得。還有一個問題是，烏克蘭是西歐汽車工業(yè)零部件的主要生產(chǎn)國，尤其是線束，現(xiàn)在供應(yīng)時斷時續(xù)。因此，我們預(yù)測2022年汽車行業(yè)的最低增長率為2.8%。”